Wall Street’s Top Players Explain Why the Bear Market isn’t Over

Readers, it’s the top of the morning Phil Rosen is here to jumpstart your Friday with a breakdown by some top Wall Street players of what they expect for the stock exchange in 2023.

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1. Morgan Stanley’s top strategist for market analysis said that the bear market isn’t over yet.Mike Wilson believes that although investors may return to stocks in the hope of the Fed stopping rate hikes, it’s unlikely that they will last well into the new year. 

“Powell’s commentary matches what we’ve been saying. they’re going to pause probably in JanuaryWilson stated that the market is advancing in this regard in a Thursday interview with Bloomberg. “This is a classic Fed-pause stock market rally.”

In fact Wilson, who this year was named Wall Street’s top portfolio strategist by Institutional Investor, warned that the S&P 500 could see another 26% dropNext year, the number could drop to 3,000 

His comments were in line with those of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks this week that caused markets to shiver surgeOn the assumption that the central bank will slow down the pace of interest rate rises at its meeting this month. 

Wilson stated, “This rally will continue and will probably drag people back into believing that this bear market has ended.”

Similarly, JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note to clients yesterday that the S&P 500 is set to revisit this year’s lowsEarly next year. They stated that the Fed’s fight against inflation will not end soon. weigh on indexes. 

“Fundamentals are likely to deteriorateAs financial conditions tighten, monetary policies become more restrictive. Fed raises rates another 75-100bp with an additional QT of $1T the economy enters a mild recessionAnalysts at the firm stated that the labor market was contracting and the unemployment rate was rising to 5%.

JPMorgan’s view of disinflation is a rising rate of unemployment and weaker corporate sentiment that will force the Fed into a policy pivot. 

The move could then be deemed a success. lift the S&P 500 to 4,200According to the bank, that will happen by 2023. This is slightly higher than Thursday’s close of the benchmark index, so investors should expect to see modest gains in 2019. 

What’s your full-year 2023 forecast for the S&P 500? 

A) Below 4,100

B) 4,100-4,500

C) 4,500-4,800

D) Above 4,800

Tweet me@philrosennEmail me (prosen@insider.comPlease contact me at (

In other news

2. Stock futures in the US fell early FridayInvestors await the US monthly jobs update. Meanwhile, Binance has frozen withdrawals of a crypto linked to its own token that looks like it’s been hacked. Here are the latest market moves.

3. Earnings on deck: Prospect Capital Corp., Copart Inc. and many more, all reporting.

4. These fund managers beat 98% of their peers by 2022. They broke down the “keeper stocks” they are betting on for 2023 — and the three market sectors they are overweight on heading into the new year.

5. According to reports, European Union leaders reached a $60 per barrel price cap for Russian oil. The trading bloc must now convince its members to agree to the level, and time is running out — the deadline is meant to be December 5.

6. It will take time for the housing market to correct. DataTrek stated that prices must fall by as much as 20% over the next few years in order to return to historical trends. The research firm pointed to previous decades’ home cycles and bubbles that could help forecast what comes next in 2023.

7. The yuan from China now accounts for almost half of Moscow’s currency markets. Russia’s central bank demanded a balanced transition to redback. even as it’s seen its share of the market jump from 1% to over 40% in less than a year.

8. Goldman Sachs argued that the US will not be in recession in 2023. Analysts listed low jobless claims, positive wages growth, and slowing inflation as reasons they made their forecast. Here are 10 reasons why they expect to skirt a downturn.

9. BlockFi is the latest victim of the crypto contagion. The fallout from FTX’s collapse has spread across other companies in digital asset space. Investors need to be more aware of the associated risks. Experts shared their best tips to safely gain exposure to the market right now.

10. The shares of a Japanese company that produces MSG are up 29%, and have just set a new record. Bloomberg reported that Ajinomoto, a food seasoning manufacturer, will accelerate its expansion into high-tech chipmaking film production. Find out more about its push into the hot semiconductor industry.

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Phil Rosen in New York curates. Do you have any tips or feedback? Tweet @philrosennEmail prosen@insider.com

Max Adams edited the text@maxradams) in New York and Hallam Bullock (@hallam_bullock) in London.